Predictions in Open Source: Security, Mature Strategies, COSO, AI/ML

I joined Javier Perez and Rod Cope of Perforce in a webinar entitled Open Source Trends to Watch in 2023 where we reviewed our 2022 predictions and laid out some new ones for 2023. To begin, our recap of last year’s predictions showed that we were on target with the trends we saw. There was:

• Increased demand for Open Source skills, impacted by the economy and the job market
• Greater awareness for Open Source security
• Widespread adoption of containers and Kubernetes
• Heightened awareness and application of ethical AI
• Inner source will no longer be a secret (bringing Open Source model to other areas of the business, making it easier to open source a project later)
• Positive, albeit slow, advancement in diversity and inclusion

Taking the time to review how accurate we were in our 2022 predictions, and reflecting on the trends emerging helps to inform what we see coming and continuing in 2023. The primary predictions we made for 2023 are outlined below.

Open Source security

Global initiatives are being established. In the US, the White House executive order of 2021 generated working groups from top global technologists that came together to create a 10-point plan. Budgets were invested to work this plan and we’ll begin to see results this year. The European commission created the Cyber Resiliency Act which is currently in discussion. China is also taking initiatives toward new security measures in Open Source. We predict that security investments will increase in 2023 and that the state of the economy opens up opportunities for more startups in this field to emerge.

Open Source strategies are maturing

Companies are paying more attention to aspects of their Open Source strategy such as security, licensing, influencing the direction of projects and building expertise within their teams. Maturing strategies are expanding to include the education of department leaders as well as engineers. We also see a huge push for best practices and adoption of Open Source in public administrations. The lack of skills is a gap that needs to be addressed in 2023.

The creation of Chief Open Source Officers

Executive oversight of Open Source initiatives and the related legal, political and licensing factors pertaining to this work is needed. We see the role of COSO emerging as a trend for 2023.

AI/ML in Open Source

Thanks to the explosion of AI and ML, new and surprising conversations are happening around the topics of data, licensing and the deployment of models. OSI has invested a lot in this topic through our AI Deep Dive series. We also see as a result more competition in the hardware space, and Open Source hardware is playing a role.

Lastly, Javier and Rod shared a few of the key findings from Perforce’s State of Open Source Survey:

• Organizations report adopting an Open Source strategy so they can contribute and help impact the direction of projects.
• There is growing adoption of replacements for end-of-lifed CentOS
• OpenSearch usage is increasing to meet ElasticSearch usage

It’s always fun to watch year after year how these predictions turn to trends. Security is still on the top of everyone’s minds, and that is fueling the other predictions such as more focused strategy and oversight within organizations, especially as more novel AI/ML technologies move more mainstream. If you’d like to watch the webinar and hear more about the momentum highlighted in this blog, you can find the recording here.

Webinar panelists:

Javier Perez, Chief Evangelist and Sr. Director of Product Management, Perforce

Rod Cope, CTO, Perforce

Stefano Maffulli, Executive Director, OSI